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I have earlier discussed Deutche Bank and its less than stellar predictions. Due to recent news I will return to the topic briefly. Deutsche Banks reports and predictions on solar power have been breathlessly hyped in the renewables marketing web sites and links from there have polluted the discussion more broadly. It should be common sense that investment bankers should not be used as a credible source let alone on a matter which requires long term thinking extending over a century. Unfortunately, such common sense seems to be in short supply.

So now solar company SunEdison is on the brink of collapse. How did that happen when only a year ago Deutsche Bank was encouraging everyone to buy this company that was bound to be part of imminent solar revolution?

Deutsche Bank recommendations early 2015

I guess it happened the same way bubbles always pop. We had analysts optimistically predicting wonderful things… just open your wallets quickly and you can get part of the fun. That paper rubish banks had created had to be sold somewhere and surely you should do it to save the planet AND for profit. Here is a funny chart for those who believed the gospel.

Nailed it

All the while company imploded Deutsche Bank was recommending “buy”. This was going on still 4 weeks ago.

“Buy Buy Buy! God dammit, why aren’t you buying!” Few weeks ago. (Poor guy. The site)

Here is are few samples how things unfolded with scant warnings about risks. Sad really.

Today apparently US retail sales were better than expected.Bloomberg reported that “Purchases increased 1.4 percent in October after a 2.3 percent drop in September that was larger than the previously estimated.” and continues that “…Retail sales were projected to rise 0.9 percent after an originally reported 1.5 percent decline in September”. Now, if before september sales were x, my logic says that the expectation for current sales was supposed to be x*0.985*1.009=0.994*x,
i.e. a decline of 0.6%. After the surprise news that figure was x*0.977*1.014=0.991*x, i.e. a decline of 0.9%. Despite the fact that sales were consequently down by around 30% MORE than expected (supposedly), these news were used to justify a stock market rally. I wonder if the only way this makes any sense is by assuming that greed shortens the memory of market participants. In this way earlier incorrect information (which was probably used to justify another rally then) has no relevance today.

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