Today apparently US retail sales were better than expected.Bloomberg reported that “Purchases increased 1.4 percent in October after a 2.3 percent drop in September that was larger than the previously estimated.” and continues that “…Retail sales were projected to rise 0.9 percent after an originally reported 1.5 percent decline in September”. Now, if before september sales were x, my logic says that the expectation for current sales was supposed to be x*0.985*1.009=0.994*x,
i.e. a decline of 0.6%. After the surprise news that figure was x*0.977*1.014=0.991*x, i.e. a decline of 0.9%. Despite the fact that sales were consequently down by around 30% MORE than expected (supposedly), these news were used to justify a stock market rally. I wonder if the only way this makes any sense is by assuming that greed shortens the memory of market participants. In this way earlier incorrect information (which was probably used to justify another rally then) has no relevance today.